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Economic Risks and Opportunities from the Release of Genetically Modified Organisms in New Zealand
April 2003, Ref. ME465
This research report was prepared for the Ministry for the Environment and the Treasury by BERL and AERU. It is part of the Government’s package of measures in response to the 2001 report of the Royal Commission on Genetic Modification. The research examines the economic risks and opportunities associated with the release of three different types of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in New Zealand, as well as of New Zealand forgoing GMO releases.
Availability:
- Read Executive Summary online (HTML)
- Download PDF of:
- Main body of report (PDF 679 KB)
- Appendix 1: Literature review (PDF 112 KB)
- Appendix 2: Survey questionnaire (PDF 40 KB)
- Appendix 3: NRB survey consumer results (PDF 84 KB)
- Appendix 4: NRB survey gatekeeper results (PDF 38 KB)
- Appendix 5: Lincoln survey results (PDF 42 KB)
- Appendix 6: Economy-wide model experiments (1.45 MB)
- Appendix 7: LTEM model details (PDF 42 KB)
- Download zip file of PDFs for entire report (1.22 MB)
- Printed copies free from the Ministry for the Environment (email publications@mfe.govt.nz)
Contents:
Executive Summary
- Introduction
- New Zealand’s Clean Green Image and GM Status
2.1 New Zealand’s clean green image
2.2 The economic analysis of GM in primary production
2.3 Issues making GM economically important to New Zealand
2.4 Approach to the analysis
2.5 Risks and world market opinion
2.6 Potential GMO opportunities - Impact on New Zealand Image and Markets of GM Status
3.1 International market survey results
3.2 Inbound tourist survey results
3.3 Translating the survey results to model inputs: demand changes
3.4 Translating the survey results to model inputs: sensitivity to price changes - New Zealand’s Production System
4.1 GM application globally
4.2 GM opportunities in production
4.3 The pest control scenario
4.4 Human therapeutics scenario
4.5 New Zealand refrains from releasing GMOs scenario - Economy-Wide Model Experiments
5.1 The model
5.2 Inputs for the experiments investigating the release of GMOs
5.3 Interpreting the model
5.4 The control or base case scenario
5.5 Schema of model experiments
5.6 Pastoral GMO scenarios (refs #1 to #3 and #6)
5.7 Pest control GMO scenarios (refs #4 and #5)
5.8 Discussion of pastoral and pest control scenarios
5.9 Scenarios where New Zealand foregoes GMOs (refs #7 to #10)
5.10 Human medicine GMO scenarios (refs #11 to #14)
5.11 Discussion of human medicine scenarios
5.12 A combined scenario - Agricultural Trade Model Experiments
6.1 The empirical model
6.2 Results
6.3 Scenario: New Zealand releases pastoral GMO
6.4 Scenario: New Zealand foregoes use of GMOs
6.5 Discussion of GM scenarios on agriculture
References - Conclusions on Economic Outcomes
- Critical Factors Determining Economic Outcomes
Appendices
