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Stakeholder Progress Report

Published in July 2009
by the Ministry for the Environment
INFO 428

Background

  1. The LUCAS (Land Use and Carbon Analysis System) programme was established to enable New Zealand to meets its reporting and accounting obligations under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities. LUCAS tasks are being undertaken in a manner designed to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance (IPCC GPG) – (IPCC 2003).
  2. The LUCAS programme involves mapping land use at 1990, and then mapping land-use changes for the time periods 1990–2007 and 2008–2012 (the first Commitment Period). All mapping has involved the extensive use of satellite imagery, some aerial photography and other spatial data.
  3. The 2008 National Inventory Report, which is due for submission in April 2010, will be the first time LULUCF sector data has come from LUCAS.
  4. Previous Inventory Reports have used the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) – developed and administered by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) – which has proven to be a good proxy until the LUCAS data was delivered.

Results of the LUCAS mapping

  1. LUCAS has mapped post-1989 forest (Kyoto forest) area as 566,106 hectares. This is 18,000 hectares lower than the estimate of eligible Kyoto forest area used in the 2009 Net Position Report based on the NEFD.
  2. The new LUCAS Kyoto forest area figures would reduce the estimated uptake by the post-1989 forests by approximately 3 million tonnes CO2 over the period 2008 to 2012. Everything else being equal this would reduce the Kyoto surplus from 9.6 million units to about 6.6 million units.
  3. The results of the LUCAS mapping are shown in Table 1 below:
Class Description 1990 2008 Difference
71 Natural Forest (key category)
8,141,990
8,087,091
–0.7%
72 Planted Forest – pre-1990 (key category)
1,478,847
1,451,900
38%
73 Post-1989 Forest (key category) Kyoto-eligible forest
566,106
74 Grassland – with woody biomass (key category)
1,151,909
1,029,415
–10.6%
>74 Non key classes
15,979,770
15,618,003
–2.3%
  Total
26,752,516
26,752,516
  
  1. The area of Kyoto-eligible forest is expected to increase further because there is up to 150,000 ha of pre-1990 Planted Forest yet to be assessed for Kyoto eligibility. This area largely comprises small forest blocks (<20 ha in size) where higher resolution data is required to definitively classify the areas into pre- or post-1989 area. Assessment of this data is scheduled to be completed by the end of January 2010.
  2. The area reported in Table 1 includes deforestation that occurred up to 31 December 2007. Mapping of deforestation for 2008 is still in progress and is due to be completed by September 2009. Mapping and reporting of deforestation will occur annually through the Commitment Period but the final area of deforestation will not be defined until 2013 when the second tranche of land-use mapping from newly acquired satellite imagery has been completed.
  3. Our estimate is that allowing for the additional Kyoto-eligible forest that could be derived from the pre-1990 Planted Forest refinement work (mentioned in paragraph 8 above) and the potential deforestation activity, the 566,106 ha could increase by 3% to 5% (16,980 ha – 28,300 ha) when our final report is tabled in April 2014.
  4. The results presented from LUCAS are derived from the best available data at the current time and do require improvement. Planned improvements include:
    1. integration of data being collected through the Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry sector of the Emissions Trading Scheme, the Permanent Forest Sink Initiative and other sources, as they become available through the Commitment Period
    2. the mapping of grassland with woody biomass, deforestation, and land-use changes occurring in areas less that 5 ha in size.
  5. A second tranche of mapping for the 2012 position will start in the summer of 2011 (October–December) to map land cover as at 31 December 2012. This tranche of mapping is not scheduled to be finalised until June 2013 and will provide the definitive position on the area of Kyoto-eligible forest for New Zealand.

Context with net position

  1. At a carbon price of NZ$25.00 / tonne carbon dioxide the variability measured by the range between the highest and lowest estimate for removals by Article 3.3 forests is NZ$378million ($NZ25 x (92.3 – 77.2)).
  2. Historically, the net removals from forests have been variable over time. There has been uncertainty in the level of deforestation during the first Commitment Period and the estimate of removals by Article 3.3 forests.

Table 2: Reconciliation of historic Article 3.3 removal projections and deforestation for Commitment Period 1

(Millions of tonnes carbon dioxide) May 
2005		 Dec 
2005		 May 
2006		 May 
2007 		 May 
2008		 May 
2009
Removals by forests (Article 3.3)
77.2
77.2
78.2
79 
84.1
92.3
Deforestation emissions
6.3
21
38.5
41 
30.5
24.2
Effect of cap on deforestation emissions    
17.5
20 
    
Effect of ETS on deforestation        
13.6
16.9
Net removals from forests 
70.9
56.2
57.2
58 
67.2
85
  1. This variability can be explained by the shift from the use of models and estimates to actual maps of the area of forest. The level of deforestation will remain uncertain until final data is available in 2013.