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New Zealand's Fifth National Communication

• Acknowledgements
• Foreword
• 1 Executive summary
• 2 National circumstances
• 3 Greenhouse gas inventory
• 4 Policies and measures
• 5 Projections and the total effect of policies and measures
• 6 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures
• 7 Financial resources and technology transfer
• 8 Research and systematic observations
• 9 Education, training and public awareness
• Annex A: Summary of emissions and removals from New Zealand's 2007 national inventory
• Annex B: Supplementary information under Article 7.2 of the Kyoto Protocol
• Annex C: Summary of policies and measures
• New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

3 Greenhouse gas inventory

3.1  Introduction

This chapter provides summary information on the latest trends in emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in New Zealand. The information provided here is consistent with New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2007 (the inventory) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Convention) on 15 April 2009.³¹

3.2      Roles and responsibilities

The Climate Change Response Act (2002, updated 26 September 2008) was enacted to enable New Zealand to meet its international obligations under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. A prime ministerial directive for the administration of the Climate Change Response Act names the Ministry for the Environment as New Zealand’s “inventory agency”.

The Ministry for the Environment is responsible for the overall development, compilation and submission of the inventory to the Convention secretariat. The Ministry also calculates estimates of emissions for the waste sector and emissions and removals from the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector.

The Ministry of Economic Development collects and compiles data on all emissions from the energy sector and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the industrial processes sector. Data on emissions of non-CO₂ gases from the industrial processes sector is obtained via industry surveys contracted to the Ministry for the Environment.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry compiles data on the agricultural sector. Methods and emission factors relating to agriculture are underpinned by the research and modelling of researchers at New Zealand’s Crown research institutes and universities.

Finally, New Zealand’s national statistical agency, Statistics New Zealand, provides many of the official statistics for the inventory.

A full description of New Zealand’s national system under Article 5.1 of the Kyoto Protocol is contained in Annex B.

3.3  National trends in New Zealand’s emissions and removals

In April 2009, New Zealand submitted its national greenhouse gas inventory for 1990 through 2007.

In 1990, New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions were 61,852.8 gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gg CO₂-e). By 2007, total greenhouse gas emissions had increased by 13,697.4 Gg CO₂-e (22 per cent) to 75,550.2 Gg CO₂-e (see figure 3.1). Between 1990 and 2007 the average annual growth in total emissions was 1.3 per cent per year.

Net removals from the LULUCF sector increased from 18,138.5 Gg CO₂ in 1990 to 23,836.0 Gg CO₂ in 2007. The 2009 inventory submission included a provisional estimate of 10,000 hectares of deforestation in 2007. Updated information indicates the area of deforestation in 2007 was in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 hectares. A provisional calculation using the updated information indicates that LULUCF net removals are therefore in the vicinity of 19,000 to 21,000 Gg CO₂-e. The recalculation for the updated area will be included in New Zealand’s inventory submission in 2010.

The four sources that have contributed the most to the increase in New Zealand’s total emissions are shown in figure 3.2.

3.4  Emissions and removals by gas

Inventory reporting under the Convention covers six direct greenhouse gases: CO₂, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons. Figure 3.3 shows New Zealand’s 2007 profile by gas. Figure 3.4 and Table 3.1 show the change in each direct greenhouse gas between 1990 and 2007. Trends in CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide emissions over the period 1990–2007 are shown in figure 3.5.

In accordance with the Convention reporting guidelines, indirect greenhouse gases are included in inventory reporting but not in the national emissions total. These indirect gases include carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen and non-methane volatile organic compounds. Removals of CO₂ from the atmosphere are reported in the LULUCF sector.

Carbon dioxide contributed the largest share of all 2007 emissions at 35,231.5 Gg CO₂-e (47 per cent). Carbon dioxide emissions increased 9893.9 Gg CO₂-e (39 per cent) from the 1990 level of 25,337.6 Gg CO₂-e. Between 2006 and 2007, CO₂ emissions decreased 1012.9 Gg CO₂-e (3 per cent). This was due to the commissioning of Genesis Energy’s combined gas turbine at Huntly power station, which led to a corresponding reduction in coal-fired electricity generation.

Methane (excluding LULUCF) contributed 26,560.1 Gg CO₂-e (35 per cent) of total emissions in 2007. Between 1990 and 2007 methane emissions grew by 1131.6 Gg CO₂-e (4 per cent) from the 1990 level of 25,428.5 Gg CO₂-e. Between 2006 and 2007 total methane emissions decreased 1012.9 Gg CO₂-e (2.8 per cent). A drought throughout the summer and autumn of 2007/08 was the primary reason for this, affecting many regions, leading to reduced livestock numbers and productivity. The reduction in livestock population, especially in sheep and deer, contributed 679.8 Gg CO₂-e to the decrease in methane emissions.

Nitrous oxide (excluding LULUCF) contributed 12,845.6 Gg CO₂-e (17 per cent) of emissions in 2007. Emissions had increased by 2416.3 Gg CO₂-e (23 per cent) from the 1990 level of 10,429.3 Gg CO₂-e. Between 2006 and 2007, total nitrous oxide emissions decreased 383.2 Gg CO₂-e (2.9 per cent). This is largely due to the drought affecting livestock productivity, which contributed 381.4 Gg CO₂-e to the decrease in nitrous oxide emissions.

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) contributed the remaining 913.0 Gg CO₂-e (1 per cent) of emissions in 2007. Emissions of PFCs decreased 600.5 Gg CO₂-e (94 per cent) from the 642.2 Gg CO₂-e in 1990 to 41.7 Gg CO₂-e in 2007. Emissions of sulphur hexafluoride decreased 0.5 Gg CO₂-e (3 per cent) from the 1990 level of 15.2 Gg CO₂-e to the 2007 level of 14.7 Gg CO₂-e. In 1990, no HFCs were used in New Zealand. In 2007, 856.6 Gg CO₂-e of HFC emissions were produced.

The growth in CO₂ emissions from 1990 to 2006 represents the increased emissions from the energy sector, particularly in road transport and energy generation. The growth in nitrous oxide is from the increase in emissions from animal excreta and the increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilisers in the agricultural sector: the amount of nitrogenous fertilisers used in New Zealand has increased six-fold since 1990.

Although the contribution of the other gases (sulphur hexafluoride, PFCs and HFCs) in the inventory is around 1 per cent of the total emissions, these gases have also undergone large relative changes between 1990 and 2007. Emissions of PFCs have decreased due to improvements in the aluminium smelting process, while HFC emissions have increased because of their use as a substitute for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which were phased out under the Montreal Protocol. No emissions of HFCs occurred in 1990 and so no percentage has been shown in table 3.1 and figure 3.4.

Table 3.1: New Zealand’s emissions of greenhouse gases, by gas, 1990 and 2007

Note: The percentage change for HFCs is not applicable (NA) because there was no consumption of HFCs in New Zealand in 1990.

Source: Ministry for the Environment. 2009. New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2007. Wellington: Ministry for the Environment.

3.5  Emissions and removals by sector

3.5.1  Overview

The agricultural sector is the largest source of emissions, contributing 36,430.0 Gg CO₂-e (48 per cent) of total emissions in 2007 (table 3.2 and figure 3.6). In other developed countries agricultural emissions are typically around 11 per cent of national emissions, which means New Zealand has a unique emissions profile in this regard. In 2007, New Zealand’s agricultural emissions had increased by 3918.9 Gg CO₂-e (12 per cent) from the 1990 level of 32,511.1 Gg CO₂-e (figure 3.7). The agricultural sector contributed 12,360.5 Gg CO₂-e (96 per cent) of New Zealand’s total nitrous oxide emissions and 24,069.5 Gg CO₂-e (91 per cent) of its total methane emissions in 2007.

Between 2006 and 2007, emissions from the agricultural sector decreased 1061.2 Gg CO₂-e (2.8 per cent) (figure 3.8). As we have seen (above), this was due to a drought throughout the summer and autumn of 2007/08. The drought affected many regions, leading to reduced livestock numbers and productivity. The reduction in livestock population, especially in sheep and deer, led to a 679.8 Gg CO₂-e (2.7 per cent) decrease in methane emissions, while decreases in livestock productivity led to a 3.0 per cent (381.4 Gg CO₂-e) decrease in nitrous oxide emissions.

The energy sector was the source of 32,653.1 Gg CO₂-e (43 per cent) of total emissions in 2007, an increase of 9200.3 Gg (39 per cent) from the 1990 level of 23,452.8 Gg CO₂-e. This growth in emissions was primarily from electricity generation, heat production and transport. Between 2006 and 2007 emissions from the energy sector decreased 1357.5 Gg CO₂-e (4.0 per cent). This was due to the commissioning of Genesis Energy’s combined-cycle gas turbine at Huntly power station and the corresponding reduction in coal-fired electricity generation.

The industrial processes sector accounted for 4601.9 Gg CO₂-e (6 per cent) of total emissions in 2007, an increase of 1192.7 Gg (35 per cent) from the 1990 level of 3409.2 Gg CO₂-e. This increase was mainly due to growth in emissions from metal production and to the consumption of HFCs. Between 2006 and 2007, emissions from the industrial processes sector increased by 368.1 Gg CO₂-e (9 per cent). This was caused by two factors: there was an increase in HFCs and PFCs used as replacement refrigerants for CFCs and HCFCs in refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment, and one cement company was increasing its production in 2007.

In 2007, the solvent and other product use sector was a minor contributor to New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions, being responsible for 43.4 Gg CO₂-e (less than 1 per cent) of total emissions. The waste sector accounted for 1821.8 Gg CO₂-e (2 per cent) of total emissions in 2007, a decrease of 616.4 Gg (25 per cent) from the 1990 level of 2438.2 Gg CO₂-e. This decrease was the result of initiatives to improve solid waste management practices in New Zealand.

In the LULUCF sector, net removals were estimated at 23,836.0 Gg CO₂-e in 2007, an increase of 5697.5 Gg (31 per cent) from the 1990 level of 18,138.5 Gg CO₂-e. LULUCF removals fluctuate with the planting and harvesting of New Zealand’s planted forest.

Table 3.2: New Zealand’s emissions of greenhouse gases, by sector, 1990 and 2007

Source: Ministry for the Environment. 2009. New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2007. Wellington: Ministry for the Environment.

3.5.2       Energy sector

In 2007, the energy sector produced 32,653.1 Gg CO₂-e, representing 43 per cent of New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions were 39 per cent (9200.3 Gg) above the 1990 level of 23,452.8 Gg CO₂-e. The sources contributing most to this increase were public electricity and heat production combined, with an increase of 3167.9 Gg CO₂-e (91 per cent), and road transportation, with an increase of 5832.9 Gg CO₂-e (76 per cent).

Emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels and the other energy industries have decreased by 1442.2 Gg CO₂-e (81 per cent) from 1990. This decrease is mainly due to stopping synthetic petrol production in New Zealand in 1997.

3.5.3       Industrial processes sector

Greenhouse gas emissions from New Zealand’s industrial processes sector were 4601.9 Gg CO₂‑e in 2007, contributing 6 per cent of total emissions. This represents an increase of 1192.7 Gg (35 per cent) above the 1990 level of 3409.2 Gg CO₂-e. The sources contributing the most to this increase were mineral products (an increase of 312.8 Gg CO₂-e, or 57 per cent), emissions from the chemical industry (an increase of 153.1 Gg CO₂-e, or 34 per cent), and emissions from synthetic gases (236.5 Gg CO₂-e).

3.5.4       Solvents and other product use sector

In 2007, emissions from the solvent and other product use sector comprised 34.5 Gg of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs).³² This was an increase of 10.2 Gg (42 per cent) from the 1990 level of 24.3 Gg. The sources dominating the sector were NMVOC emissions from paint application, and other domestic and commercial use (figure 3.11).

3.5.5       Agricultural sector

In 2007, the agricultural sector contributed 36,430.0 Gg CO₂-e (48 per cent) of New Zealand’s total emissions, an increase of 3918.9 Gg (12 per cent) from the 1990 level of 32,511.1 Gg CO₂-e. This increase was primarily due to a 1507.4 Gg CO₂-e (7 per cent) increase in methane emissions from the enteric fermentation category, and a 2254.7 Gg CO₂-e (22 per cent) increase in nitrous oxide emissions from the agricultural soils category (figure 3.12).

Since 1990, there have been changes in the proportions of the main livestock species farmed in New Zealand: an increase in dairy and deer production because of high world demand and favourable prices, counterbalanced by land coming out of sheep production and decreasing sheep numbers. Beef numbers have remained relatively static. Productivity has increased across all major animal species and classes.

The land area used for horticulture increased by 50 per cent from 1990 to 2007, and the types of produce grown have changed, with less cultivated land area used for barley, wheat and fruit but more for grapes (for wine production) and vegetables than in 1990. There has also been a net increase in land planted in forestry, thereby taking land out of agricultural production.

There was a gradual increase in the implied emission factors for dairy cattle and beef cattle from 1990 to 2007. This is expected because the New Zealand inventory methodology uses annual animal performance data that reflects the increased levels of productivity achieved by New Zealand farmers since 1990.

3.5.6  Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector

In New Zealand the LULUCF sector is a net carbon sink. In 2007, net removals from the LULUCF sector were 23,836.0 Gg CO₂-e, an increase of 5697.5 Gg (31 per cent) over the 1990 removals of 18,138.5 Gg CO₂-e. Figure 3.13 shows changes in emissions and removals, by land-use category, from 1990 to 2007.

The 2009 inventory submission includes a provisional estimate of 10,000 hectares of deforestation in 2007. Updated information indicates the area of deforestation in 2007 was in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 hectares. A provisional calculation using the updated information indicates that LULUCF net removals are in the vicinity of 19,000 to 21,000 Gg CO₂-e. The recalculation for the updated area will be included in the 2010 submission.

To improve the transparency and accuracy of reporting in the LULUCF sector, and to meet the supplementary reporting requirements for Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand has developed the Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS).³³ The land categories mapped and monitored through LUCAS are designed specifically for reporting under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Initial results from LUCAS were produced in June 2009 and will be reported in New Zealand’s 2010 inventory submission onwards.

3.5.7 Waste sector

In 2007, the waste sector accounted for 1821.8 Gg CO₂-e (2 per cent) of total emissions, which was 616.4 Gg (25 per cent) below the 1990 baseline value of 2438.2 Gg CO₂-e. This reduction occurred in the “solid waste disposal on land” subcategory (figure 3.14) as a result of initiatives to improve solid waste management practices and increase the rate of landfill gas capture in New Zealand.

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