Executive Summary

Climate change & greenhouse gas inventory

Greenhouse gases trap the warmth from the sun and make life on Earth possible. However, over the previous 50 to 100 years, the concentration of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) in the atmosphere has been increasing. This increased concentration produces an 'enhanced greenhouse effect' that causes Earth to heat at a faster rate and the climate to change. The climate changes ahead of us are expected to be much larger and happen more quickly than any recent natural changes.

In response to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations General Assembly convened a series of meetings that culminated in the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 'Earth Summit' in May 1992. The UNFCCC took effect on 21 March 1994.

The long-term objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Developed countries are required to address climate change through policies and measures to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, protecting and enhancing sinks (e.g. forests), monitoring and reporting on greenhouse gas emissions and removals, and providing financial assistance to developing countries. All developed countries that ratified the UNFCCC agreed to aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

However by 2000, only a few countries made appreciable progress towards achieving their targets. In response, the Parties to the UNFCCC negotiated the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement that sets targets for greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries for 2008 to 2012 (the first commitment period). Different countries have different reduction targets to achieve or they must take responsibility for excess emissions. New Zealand's target is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to the level they were in 1990. The Protocol has to be signed and ratified by 55 countries (including those responsible for at least 55% of the developed world's 1990 CO₂ emissions) before it can enter into force. As at April 2004, 120 countries accounting for 44.2% of developed countries CO₂ emissions in 1990 have ratified the Protocol. New Zealand ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 19 December 2002.

The development and publication of an annual inventory of all human-induced emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in New Zealand is part of New Zealand's obligations to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The inventory is the tool for measuring New Zealand's progress against these obligations. The inventory reports emissions and removals of the gases CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) from six sectors: energy, industrial processes, solvents, agriculture, land use change and forestry (LUCF), and waste. The format and content of the inventory is prescribed by the UNFCCC guidelines (FCCC/CP/2002/8) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

National trends in New Zealand's emissions and removals

In 1990, New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions were equivalent to 61,639.97Gg of CO₂. In 2002, total greenhouse gas emissions have increased to 74,976.34Gg CO₂ equivalent (Figure 1.1). This equates to a 21.6% rise since 1990. Net removals of CO₂ through sinks have increased from 21,665.87Gg CO₂ in 1990 to 24,076.44Gg CO₂ in 2002.

Figure 1.1 New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2002

See figure at its full size (including text description).

There have also been changes in the relative amounts of the greenhouse gases emitted. Whereas CH₄ made the largest contribution to New Zealand's emissions in 1990, CO₂ is now the major greenhouse gas in New Zealand's emissions profile (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 Emissions of greenhouse gases 1990 and 2002

Greenhouse Gas Emissions	Gg CO₂ equivalent		Change from 1990 (%)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions	1990	2002	Change from 1990 (%)
Net CO₂ emissions / removals	3,490.49	9,598.54	175.00
CO₂ emissions (without LUCF)	25,254.24	33,769.80	33.72
CH₄	25,570.53	27,562.86	7.8
N₂O	10,287.26	13,159.68	27.9
HFCs	0.00	387.59
PFCs	515.60	83.50	-83.8
SF₆	12.33	12.91	4.7
Total emissions without CO₂ from LUCF	61,639.97	74,976.34	21.6

Source and sink category emission estimates and trends

New Zealand is unusual amongst developed nations in that 49.2% of total emissions in 2002 are produced by the agriculture sector (Figure 1.2). The energy sector is the other large component of New Zealand's emissions profile comprising 42.8% of total emissions in 2002.

Emissions from the industrial processes and waste sectors are a much smaller component of New Zealand's emissions comprising 4.7% and 3.2% respectively of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2002. New Zealand's relatively small manufacturing base means that solvent use is lower than in many other countries.

Figure 1.2 New Zealand's sectoral emissions in 2002 (all figures Gg CO₂ equivalent)

See figure at its full size (including text description).

The principal growth in New Zealand's emissions comes from the energy sector where emissions are now 35.0% above the 1990 level (Table 1.2). The increase arises largely from increased CO₂ from road transport and public electricity generation. There have also been increases in emissions from industrial processes and agricultural sectors. Emissions from waste are now 17.7% below the 1990 baseline with the majority of the reduction occurring in the solid waste disposal on land category. The LUCF sector represents the major sink for New Zealand. Removals through LUCF are 11.3% above the 1990 level.

Table 1.2 Sectoral emissions of greenhouse gases in 1990 and 2002

Sector	Gg CO₂ equivalent		Change from 1990 (%)
Sector	1990	2002	Change from 1990 (%)
Energy	23,746.84	32,047.22	35.0
Industrial processes	2,934.09	3,535.12	20.5
Solvent and other product	41.54	48.36	16.4
Agriculture	31,911.15	36,856.64	15.5
Land-use change and forestry	-21,665.87	-24,076.44	11.1
Waste	2,908.46	2,394.18	-17.7

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