Questions and Answers on New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2007
The following questions and answers (Q&As) are organised into the following sections: Background to the inventory, latest figures on emissions and removals, and the last sections addresses how the inventory links with the Kyoto Protocol.
- Section 1 – Background to the inventory
- Section 2 – Latest information on emissions and removals from the 1990-2007 inventory
- Section 3 – The inventory and the Kyoto Protocol
Section 1 – Background to the inventory
1. What is the greenhouse gas inventory?
The inventory is an annual account of all human-induced emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in New Zealand. The inventory is produced each year as part of New Zealand’s obligations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Climate Change Convention) and the Kyoto Protocol.
2. Why is the data in the inventory only reported to the end of 2007 when it is now 2009?
The international reporting guidelines govern what the inventory covers and when it is submitted. The inventory year is 15 months behind the current calendar year, i.e. the 2007 inventory published in April 2009 contains data from 1990 to 2007 inclusive. All developed countries report using the same international guidelines.
3. What sectors are covered in the inventory?
The inventory reports greenhouse gas emissions from six sectors: energy; industrial processes; solvents; agriculture; land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF); and waste. These are defined by the international guidelines. Two important points are that in the inventory, transport is only a category of the energy sector and that the LULUCF sector of the inventory covers all forests – both natural and planted for all years (see section 3, question 24 for further Q&As on the difference between the inventory and Kyoto forests).
4. What gases are covered in the inventory?
The inventory totals emissions from six direct greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The inventory also reports indirect greenhouse gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)), but these are not included in New Zealand's greenhouse gas total. Under the Climate Change Convention and Kyoto Protocol only emissions and removals of the six direct greenhouse gases are reported in the national greenhouse gas total.
5. Who is responsible for the New Zealand inventory?
Prime ministerial directive for the administration of the Climate Change Response Act (2002, updated 26 September 2008) names the Ministry for the Environment as the “Inventory Agency”. The Ministry for the Environment is responsible for submitting the greenhouse gas inventory under the Climate Change Convention every year by the 15th April. The Ministry for the Environment works closely with the Ministry of Economic Development and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to compile the emissions data. Many of the values used in the inventory are derived from Statistics New Zealand.
6. What is the uncertainty in the national inventory? Isn't there high uncertainty around agriculture emissions?
The international guidance notes that uncertainty estimates are an essential element of a complete greenhouse gas emissions and removals inventory. The purpose of uncertainty information is not to dispute the validity of the inventory estimates, but to help prioritise efforts to improve the accuracy of inventories in the future and guide decisions on methodologies.
Inventories prepared following the good practice guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will typically contain a wide range of emission estimates. These will vary from carefully measured and demonstrably complete data to highly variable estimates such as nitrous oxide emissions from soils.
For New Zealand, the uncertainty in total emissions (excluding removals) for the 2007 calendar year is ± 21 per cent. However, uncertainty in the trend in emissions since 1990 is only ± 6 per cent, because the uncertainty in emissions factors in any one year cancels out over time. It is the trend in emissions that is paramount to the requirements under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.
7. Is the inventory accurate?
The New Zealand inventory works under the definitions of IPCC good practice. The inventory is reviewed annually against the criteria of being accurate, complete, consistent, comparable and transparent.
The IPCC defines inventory accuracy as “estimates should be accurate in the sense that they are systemically neither over nor under true emissions or removals, as far as can be judged, and that uncertainties are reduced as far as practicable.”
The inventory, using comparable methodologies with other countries, is complete, containing all sources and sinks and all gases for the period 1990 – 2007. For any given source of emissions or removals, the same methodology is used consistently over the 1990-2007 period. All assumptions and methodologies used in estimating emissions and removals are transparent to enable users of the information to replicate the calculations.
8. Is the inventory reviewed against “international best practice”?
The greenhouse gas inventory is reviewed annually by a team of international experts. The review team is selected from a roster of experts managed by the Secretariat to the Climate Change Convention. Most of the reviews are conducted in Bonn, Germany, but every 3 to 4 years, the review team will come to New Zealand for one week for an intense, in-country review. The last in-country review for New Zealand was in February 2007.
The review reports are completely transparent and are available for anyone to download from the Climate Change Convention website (www.unfcccc.int).
New Zealand’s 2008 inventory submission (1990-2006) was assessed through a centralised review in Bonn in September 2008. The main conclusions were:
- The inventory has been prepared generally in line with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (hereinafter referred to as the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines), the IPCC good practice guidance and the IPCC good practice guidance for LULUCF.
- The 2008 inventory submission is of a high quality and shows significant improvement in the major issues such as quality control and quality assurance (QA/QC) (in particular, the development of a risk register for the greenhouse gas inventory) and institutional arrangements compared with the 2007 submission.
9. What would happen if New Zealand was judged to use a low or unsupported emissions factor?
Under the Climate Change Convention review process New Zealand would be encouraged to change the emission factor.
Under the Kyoto Protocol the review team has the power to adjust emissions to the IPCC default value and apply a penalty factor ranging from 2 to 37 per cent.
Section 2 – Latest information on emissions and removals from the 1990-2007 inventory
10. What are the latest total figures?
Total gross emissions in 2007 were 75.6 Mt CO2-e.
New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 13.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) (22 per cent) over the 1990 value of 61.9 Mt (Figure 1).
In 2007 net removals from planted forests were 24.6 Mt CO2-e. Removals have increased 5.7 Mt CO2-e (31 per cent) since 1990.
The best estimate of deforestation currently comes from the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The area deforested in 2007 is estimated to be 10,000 hectares (provisional). Note that updated data in April 2009 indicates the area of deforestation in 2007 was in the range of 15,000 – 20,000 hectares. The recalculation for the updated area will be included in the 2010 submission.
Figure 1: New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2007
11. Why have emissions decreased between 2006 and 2007?
Between 2006 and 2007 emissions decreased 2.0 Mt CO2-e (3 per cent). This was due to two major factors. The first was a drought throughout the summer and autumn of 2007/2008. The drought affected many regions, leading to reduced agriculture livestock numbers and productivity.
The second factor was the commissioning of Genesis Energy’s combined cycle gas turbine at Huntly and the corresponding reduction in coal-fired electricity generation.
12. What sectors produce the greenhouse gas emissions?
The agriculture sector was the largest source of emissions, contributing 36.4 Mt CO2-e in 2007. Agriculture contributed 48 per cent to New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 (methane and nitrous oxide).
The energy sector (including electricity and transport) contributed 32.7 Mt CO2-e in 2007. Energy was 43 per cent of total emissions (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane).
Emissions from the industrial processes, solvents and waste sectors are a small component of New Zealand's inventory comprising 4.6 CO2-e Mt (6 per cent), 0.04 Mt CO2-e (less than 0.1 per cent) and 1.8 Mt CO2-e (2 per cent) in 2007 respectively.
13. Which individual areas are causing the increase in New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions?
The largest absolute increase is from road transport. Emissions increased by 5.8 Mt CO2-e (76 per cent) since 1990.
Electricity generation and heat production emissions have increased 3.2 Mt CO2-e (91 per cent) since 1990.
Methane emissions produced by enteric fermentation from livestock increased 1.5 Mt CO2-e (7 per cent) since 1990.
Emissions from livestock waste (dung and urine) deposited on soil and the use of nitrogenous fertilisers increased 2.3 Mt CO2-e (22 per cent) since 1990.
14. What were the net removals from the LULUCF sector in 2007?
In 2007 net removals from planted forests were 24.6 Mt CO2-e. Removals have increased 5.7 Mt CO2-e (31 per cent) since 1990.
The best estimate of deforestation currently comes from the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The area deforested in 2007 is estimated to be 10,000 hectares (provisional). Note that updated data in April 2009 indicates the area of deforestation in 2007 was in the range of 15,000 – 20,000 hectares. The recalculation for the updated area will be included in the 2010 submission.
15. Why does the reported inventory total exclude the LULUCF sector?
The Climate Change Convention separates emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector from a Party’s national total. All inventory reviews under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol report emissions excluding the LULUCF sector when making reference to total emissions.
16. What were deforestation emissions in 2007?
The current inventory is not required to explicitly identify deforestation. The inventory will include afforestation and deforestation data in the supplementary Kyoto tables required for the 2010 inventory submission.
The best estimate of deforestation currently comes from the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The area deforested in 2007 is estimated to be 10,000 hectares (provisional). Note that updated data in April 2009 indicates the area of deforestation in 2007 was in the range of 15,000 – 20,000 hectares. The recalculation for the updated area will be included in the 2010 submission.
17. Why have emissions for 1990 and 2006 changed since the last inventory submission?
The inventory is under continuous improvement. As better data, emission factors or methodologies come to light emissions are back-calculated throughout the time-series to reflect these improvements. The Climate Change Convention and Kyoto Protocol review processes require this to occur. A lack of recalculations would be interpreted as a lack of progression on the inventory.
The difference in emissions between the 2009 and 2008 inventory submissions is less than 0.2 per cent in 1990 and 0.3 per cent for 2006. The major recalculations were:
Energy
- Year-specific calorific values for all fuel types were introduced.
Industrial Processes
- Updated emission factors and assumptions and the inclusion of new activity data within various categories.
Agriculture
- Activity data was updated with the latest data from Statistics New Zealand.
LULUCF
- Revised planted forest modeling and an updated emission factor for cropland.
Waste
- Updated solid waste compositional values, adjustments to wastewater activity data and corrections made to modeling errors for incinerated waste.
18. Why has New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions increased since 1990?
There are a number of reasons for the increase in our emissions. These include the expansion of dairy farming, an increase in the use of nitrogen fertiliser, more cars and trucks on the road and an increase in the proportion of electricity generated using fossil fuels. Some key categories showing absolute and percentage changes since 1990 are shown in the table 1.
Table 1: Change in emissions from 1990 – 2007
Category |
1990 |
2007 |
Absolute change |
Percentage change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Methane from enteric fermentation: Dairy Beef Sheep |
5.0 4.9 11.3 |
8.5 5.3 8.8 |
3.5 0.4 -2.5 |
70 8 -22 |
| Nitrous oxide from nitrogen fertiliser (across all livestock types) | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 500 |
| Nitrous oxide from livestock grazing (across all livestock types) | 9.4 | 10.1 | 0.7 | 7 |
| Road transport | 7.7 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 75 |
| Electricity generation | 3.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 91 |
Note for table: Under Climate Change Convention and Kyoto Protocol reporting nitrous oxide emissions are not separated by livestock type.
The demand for electricity has been met primarily from increasing fossil fuel based thermal generation (such as coal and gas fired electricity generation plants) rather than renewable energy sources such as hydro and wind. Thermal generation has increased since 1990 (Figure 2).
Between 2006 and 2007 emissions from electricity generation decreased with the commissioning of Genesis Energy’s combined cycle gas turbine at Huntly, reducing coal-fired electricity generation.
Figure 2: Hydro-electric and thermal generation from 1990 to 2007
19. Does this year’s data show that emissions growth is slowing?
A trend in decreasing emissions growth cannot be deduced from one year’s data. The growth in New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions fluctuate significantly year on year due to factors like droughts and the proportion of renewable energy used to produce electricity, particularly hydro-electricity generation. Total emissions also decreased between 1992 and 1993, 1997 and 1998, and 2003 and 2004.
The decrease in emissions from 2006 to 2007 was 3 per cent. Between 1990 and 2007, the average annual growth in overall emissions was 1.3 per cent per year.
Section 3 – The inventory and the Kyoto Protocol
20. How does the inventory fit with the Kyoto Protocol?
The inventory is firmly under the Climate Change Convention, i.e. all developed countries, including the USA, are required to produce an inventory. Countries that are also Party to the Kyoto Protocol are required to include additional information in the inventory on matters related to the Kyoto Protocol, e.g. transfer of units from the registry, accounting for forest sinks.
21. How “good” is New Zealand’s inventory in meeting the Kyoto Protocol requirements?
New Zealand has consistently met the reporting requirements under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.
The submission of the inventory to the Climate Change Convention secretariat is consistently within the allocated six weeks of April 15th as required under decision 15/CMP.1.
The national system for the greenhouse gas inventory, the national registry, and the 1990 (base year) greenhouse gas inventory was reviewed by an expert review team in February 2007. The expert review report concluded that:
- “New Zealand’s greenhouse gas inventory is consistent with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines and the IPCC good practice guidance, and adheres to the reporting guidelines under Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol”
- “New Zealand’s national system is prepared in accordance with the guidelines for national systems under Article 5, paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol and reported in accordance with the guidelines for the preparation of the information required under Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol”
- “New Zealand’s national registry is fully compliant with the registry requirements as defined by decisions 13/CMP.1 and 5/CMP.1”.
- These significant developments allowed New Zealand to be one of the first four Parties to be eligible to participate in the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. New Zealand’s registry was operational on January 1, 2008.
22. Given the upward overall trend in emissions will New Zealand still be able to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitment?
New Zealand is working towards meeting our commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. However, like many other countries, New Zealand recognises that reducing emissions is not an easy or straightforward task.
The goal of the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce the aggregate emissions of the six greenhouse gases from developed countries by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the first commitment period (2008-2012).
Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have individual targets. Reducing global greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere can be achieved by reducing the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted or removing carbon dioxide presently in the atmosphere by increasing and maintaining carbon sinks (for example, managing forests). Countries can use least-cost methods to achieve emissions reductions by using the “flexibility mechanisms” (e.g. carbon trading) provided through the Kyoto Protocol. It is completely incorrect for commentators to say that increasing domestic emissions shows New Zealand will fail to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.
23. Why can the reported emissions for 1990 change in the inventory when Kyoto units (based on 1990 emissions) have already been assigned?
or
Why does the 1990 year get recalculated each time? Shouldn’t that figure remain constant now we are in the first commitment period?
This is where there is a clear separation between Kyoto Protocol and the Climate Change Convention reporting.
For the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand’s assigned amount is the gross greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 multiplied by 5. The assigned amount is based on the 1990 inventory submitted as part of the Initial Report under the Kyoto Protocol and reviewed by an international review team in February 2007. The assigned amount does not change during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
In contrast, emissions and removals for all years of the inventory are subject to change due to continuous improvement. Consequently, the level of emissions in 1990 reported in 2008 inventory submission is different (0.2 per cent) from the 1990 level used in the assigned amount calculation.
All countries face this issue, and accept that although the 1990 assigned amounts are fixed, inventories will continue to improve.
24. Are the planted forests in the LULUCF sector our Kyoto sinks?
The LULUCF sector of the inventory is not the same as forest sinks or afforestation under the Kyoto Protocol. The inventory reports emissions and removals from all forests (planted and natural) for all years, whereas under the Kyoto Protocol only new plantings (after 31 December 1989) and any deforestation over the first commitment period enters the accounting system. The Kyoto Protocol tables also explicitly report deforestation.
25. What is the difference between the Net Position Report and the Greenhouse Gas Inventory report – why do we need two reports?
The greenhouse gas inventory report is the official annual report of human-caused emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in New Zealand that have occurred in the past. The 2009 inventory report covers emissions and removals from 1990 through to 2007. The greenhouse gas inventory measures New Zealand’s progress against New Zealand’s obligations under the Climate Change Convention and under the Kyoto Protocol.
The net position report provides a projection of New Zealand’s likely balance of Kyoto Protocol emissions units at the end of the first commitment period (CP1: 2008-2012). An emissions unit is equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide gas. The report is written on an annual basis to keep the Government informed of New Zealand’s progress towards achieving its Kyoto Protocol obligations.
Whether New Zealand will be in deficit or credit in relation to its’ Kyoto obligation won’t be known until 2015 when the final greenhouse gas inventory for the first commitment period is submitted and reviewed by an international review team.
